Way Too Early 2024 Election Thoughts and Predictions
So, to sum up… the front runner for the Republican ticket is a literal fascist who tried to seize power during his last term, is a civilly liable rapist, defamer, and fraudster who is on the hook for $500 million cash, has been indicted 4 times criminally, and is being completely removed from ballots across the country from Maine to Colorado due to his insurrectionist ways — challenges which are likely to be decided shortly by the supreme court. And he still might be our next president…
The Democrats are (at least seemingly) planning to go full steam ahead with Joe Biden as their candidate- a president who got more good things done than any president in my lifetime, but who has no idea how to communicate that fact to the American people, and who also doesn't seem to even really be able to communicate at all anymore, leading to questions about how the 81-year-old will be able to finish out this term let alone another entire one. Yeah…
Kamala Harris has been AWOL since about 6 months into the Biden presidency (when she was going to “take care of the border” remember) due to her likeability issues as well as apparent turmoil within her staff.
Poor Nikki Haley’s southern charm isn't doing the trick as she continues to get blown away in primary after primary because the radicalized republican base doesn’t even see her (a career conservative) as a Republican anymore.
So what the hell is going to be the State of the Union and all of these characters come November 2024… your guess is as good as mine. But let’s give it a try.
Joe Biden will not be the head of the Democratic ticket come November. The DNC insiders will pull him aside, force him out, and hold a free-for-all pseudo-snap election to determine the head of the ticket. The candidate will be one of the following; Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsome, Kamala Harris, or Josh Shapiro in that order of probability.
Donald Trump will win the republican primary but will also be found guilty criminally of at least the “hush-money” case. And although that is the least consequential of the cases he is embroiled in, polls have already indicated that a criminal conviction at least somewhat spoils his electability and he will drop a few points in the polls as a result.
If it is Joe Biden vs Donald Trump come November, even with a criminal conviction or two, Donald Trump will win and thrust this country into an even more disturbed and chaotic four years than the last time we tried that horrible experiment.
If Kamala Harris is the nominee, I believe Donald Trump will also pull off the victory, due to her association with Joe Biden and her likeability issue.
I believe the strongest candidate both in terms of chances to beat Trump or any Republican as well as lead this country powerfully for the next four years is Josh Shapiro. (I would prefer Bernie Sanders or Nina Turner but unfortunately, neither is realistic at this time). Shapiro seems to be a decently strong Democrat who sounds a little bit like Barack Obama and who doesn't seem afraid to run a decently progressive campaign. He checks every box except that nobody knows who he is yet which is the most important thing, sad for him.
Whoever the Democrat candidate is, even if it is Joe Biden, they will outperform the polls by 3–4 points nationally as has been the trend essentially since Roe Vs Wade was overturned. For Joe Biden, this won't be enough to put him over Trump, but for almost any other Democrat it will be.
It seems like RFK is still planning to be on the ballot, but it’s not certain how many states he’s even going to be on and it’s also not certain which party he will sequester more votes away from. We’ll keep an eye on those polls and update as things become more clear.
There are so many unknowns and this election is shaping up to be insane for all the wrong reasons.
I think we will survive, but I don't have all the confidence that this country will make the right choice due to recent history.
A large part of the problem is Joe Biden and Democrat stubbornness. Also, this two-party duopoly that essentially holds the country hostage and force-feeds garbage down our throats is an epic shame and should have been done away with yesterday.
The founding fathers intended that every election be open to numerous candidates of various parties' backgrounds and opinions. Nowadays more people have the right to vote only with fewer options to choose from… go figure. These days, any competition from outside the big two is snuffed out viciously- except strangely Trump who flipped the script and viciously bulldozed his way into the republican party via a hostile takeover.
Regardless, those are topics for another day.
Those are my thoughts as of February 25th, 2024, on the state of the 2024 election and its potential outcomes. Let’s see how badly this ages. :)
